Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-20 26.105242 31.137917 36.647582 43.097289 50.409302 58.410463 67.795753
2025-07-27 19.234315 26.013358 34.149968 44.502180 57.180487 72.056477 90.674560
2025-08-03 15.201622 22.731066 32.440170 45.587583 62.610471 83.579152 110.998215
2025-08-10 11.892256 19.510923 29.992874 44.981791 65.327448 91.417280 126.763914
2025-08-17 9.796313 17.475069 28.662792 45.427400 69.101074 100.475385 144.211550
2025-08-24 8.028216 15.546356 27.121208 45.243672 71.779257 108.004557 159.795888
2025-08-31 6.348617 13.406774 24.911905 43.739996 72.312922 112.457572 171.257005
2025-09-07 5.447527 12.397307 24.286994 44.469272 75.998768 121.326210 188.994634
2025-09-14 4.423686 10.948864 22.722807 43.511369 76.999649 126.309313 201.383745
2025-09-21 3.886033 10.322155 22.457818 44.578329 81.092053 135.876123 220.568802
2025-09-28 3.045384 8.880866 20.529686 42.637525 80.257023 138.020506 228.996529
2025-10-05 2.740582 8.541976 20.593784 44.107532 84.947958 148.630498 250.168688
2025-10-12 2.382446 8.043339 20.369419 45.200492 89.350602 159.403531 272.649399
2025-10-19 2.096309 7.658708 20.335009 46.660564 94.506403 171.659878 297.976953
2025-10-26 1.823828 7.232678 20.144558 47.787232 99.125538 183.226648 322.621709
2025-11-02 1.474095 6.475475 19.109776 47.158510 100.594057 189.752946 339.644809
2025-11-09 1.248945 6.013197 18.659243 47.620999 103.994039 199.507520 361.983389
2025-11-16 1.026589 5.474426 17.933848 47.430316 106.155643 207.255648 381.339481
2025-11-23 0.785324 4.756787 16.631571 45.869485 105.632647 210.430378 393.410034
2025-11-30 0.673368 4.481894 16.416709 46.626533 109.515687 221.199816 418.065609
2025-12-07 0.524139 3.969968 15.465096 45.632131 109.929185 225.973964 433.007504
2025-12-14 0.457462 3.798681 15.437576 46.739734 114.517510 238.164749 460.524979
2025-12-21 0.330507 3.235718 14.143456 44.724841 112.714534 238.976798 469.038709